《大行報告》中金料阿里(09988.HK)首財季收入按年升35% 估非通用準則淨利潤390億人幣
中金發表研究報告料,阿里巴巴(09988.HK)首財季收入將按年升35%至2,071億元人民幣(下同),其中核心電商業務收入按年升16%至827億元,較市場預期低4%,主要受高基數效應影響,估計經調整EBITDA將按年跌8%至419億元,符市場預期,並料非通用會計準則淨利潤將按年持平在390億元,符預期。
中金認為阿里首財季業績存在特殊的季節性,考慮到核心電商業務及盒馬業務的高基數效應,加上新零售業務受社區團購競爭對手影響,另外頭部客戶流失亦拖累雲業務的增長,而據國統局數據顯示今年4-5月社會消費品線上零售額按年增速放緩至12.4%。不過展望下半年中金留意到公司透過品牌商家不斷強化「護城河」,而其長期基本面亦維持穩健,估計增長動能可逐步回復至正常並加快回升。
該行亦估計阿里巴巴首財季投入將有所增加,料將持續投資多項業務,包括MMC事業群、淘特、本地生活服務及Lazada等,致全年淨利潤持續受壓,惟核心業務是一個需長遠服務商戶的長期價值,相信公司需要時間秣放商家端的長期價值,並逐步受惠於業務戰略轉型。
中金維持對阿里巴巴2022及2023財年盈利預測不變,維持「跑贏行業」評級,目標價275港元。(el/w) ~
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