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中航重機(600765):加快轉讓力源蘇州資產 聚焦航空鍛造主業
格隆匯 06-28 00:01
公司近況6月25日,中航重機發布公吿,同意控股子公司中航力源液壓(持股99.95%)對其全資子公司力源蘇州採用股權轉讓與增資的方式進行混改,按照力源蘇州以2020年6月30日為基準日的評估值6.85億元以及註冊資本3億元測算,對應2.28元/註冊資本。我們認為:公司此次混改響應了國資委“瘦身健體”、“扭虧減虧”專項工作要求,通過引進市場化經營機制,可實現力源蘇州扭虧增盈高質量發展,同時有助於中航重機聚焦航空鍛造主業,"瘦身健體”,提質增效。評論力源蘇州是中航力源液壓民品經營和管理中心,已連續多年虧損。力源蘇州成立於2010年,中航力源液壓對力源蘇州持有100%股權,後者是其在蘇州設立的高端、核心液壓基礎件開發與產業化生產基地,主要從事高壓軸向柱塞式液壓泵/馬達的研發和生產,主要客户為卡特、徐工、中聯、三一等行業龍頭企業。2018年,力源蘇州“高端核心液壓基礎件研發及產業化生產項目”驗收,其轉固折舊及項目貸款財務費用等固定成本增加,而工程機械產品配套市場規模未能實現預期增長,導致持續虧損,扭虧難度較大。本次混改將有利於公司聚焦主業,瘦身健體。從歷史數據看,2018-2020年力源蘇州分別虧損1億元、0.8億元、1.1億元,其絕對值佔公司歸母淨利潤比例是29%,30%和32%(考慮歸母)。而此次混改交易結束之後,力源蘇州將不再納入中航重機合併報表範圍,公司業績將得到改善,我們保守預計此次混改將增厚公司20%利潤(相比2020年)。更重要的是,“瘦身健體、處僵治困”有利於公司治理的改善,帶來費用的降低和整體利潤率提升。估值與建議中航重機作為航空工業集團下屬唯一的鍛造平台,國內航空鍛造龍頭,下游客户覆蓋航空裝備和發動機,兼具爆發性和長期性,十四五期間成長性好。我們認為,此次混改體現了公司市值管理意識的提高,釋放出聚焦航空鍛造主業的信號,其治理和經營有望進一步改善和提升。我們預計公司2021-2022年EPS分別為0.60/0.80元,CAGR為47.0%公司當前股價對應2021/2022年為36倍/28倍市盈率,PEG<1,我們給予目標價23.86元,分別對應2021/2022年39.5倍/30倍市盈率,潛在上行空間99%。風險市場出現較大波動;交易進展不如預期;企業治理改善進度低於預期等。
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