《大行报告》大和降首都机场(00694.HK)评级至「跑输大市」 目标价下调至5.4元
大和发表研究报告,指出首都机场(00694.HK)的免税店营运商中国中免(601888.SH)及上海机场(600009.SH)在上月29日出乎意料地就其免税合同作出公告。根据中国中免及上海机场最新的公布,其免税合同进行了修订,国际旅客吞吐量将决定免税租金的收取方式。
若机场的每月国际旅客吞吐量低於2019年平均水平的80%,上海机场将会基於每名国际旅客的平均免税销售额、实际国际旅客人数、旅客调整因素及建筑面积调整因素等,向中国中免收取租金收入。然而,若国际旅客数目超过80%门槛,上海机场将收取固定租金。虽然首都机场尚未发布任何相关公告,但看到其有很大机会采取类似做法,例如可能只收取2020年保证租金收入30亿元人民币的一部分。
该行估计,首都机场将会在2023年取消这80%门槛,其2021至2022年的免税租金将分别占其2020年保证租金收入的59%及98%。相比上海机场,首都机场的航空收入更高,其免税租金占2019年总收入约33%,虽然潜在的免税政策修订将影响其收益,但看到对其负面影响相对较小。
大和预期首都机场在2020年度会录得更大的亏损,超出早前的预期,并在2021年度扭亏为盈,将其2022年的每股盈利预测下调36%。目标价由原来的8.2元下调至5.4元,投资评级由「买入」调低至「跑输大市」。
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