上海機電(600835)：業績符合預期,短期承壓，維持“持有”評級
機構：西南證券
評級：持有
事件：公司發佈2019年年報，實現營收221.2億元（+4.2%），歸母淨利潤10.8億元（-14.9%），扣非淨利潤10億元（-16.7%），業績短期承壓，符合預期。
短期毛利率承壓，盈利能力下降。2019年電梯、自動扶梯及升降機行業產量117.3萬台（+12.8%），公司實現電梯產銷量分別為8.8萬台和8.9萬台，同比增長6%和10%，略低於市場平均水平。電梯市場競爭仍較為激烈，公司銷量提升，但預計價格有所承壓，2019年電梯業務實現營收208.2億元（+4.8%），增速低於銷量增速，實現毛利率16.5%（下降2.7pp），致使公司整體盈利水平下降。公司2019Q4實現營收55億元（+3.3%），歸母淨利潤2.2億元（-7.5%），毛利率16.4%（同比下降0.8pp，環比提升0.1pp），利潤下降幅度有所收窄，業績符合預期。
舊梯改造，舊房加裝需求向好，值得關注。舊梯改造方面，2019年底國內在用梯保有量近700萬台，其中運行15年以上的老舊電梯數量逐年增加，舊梯改造需求正在逐年釋放。子公司上海三菱電梯積極參與深圳住宅小區等老舊電梯更新改造，迄今為止已為深圳住宅小區更新了近700台老舊電梯，公司預計2019年同比增幅將超過50%。舊房加裝方面，由於歷史原因，全國各地有大批六、七層樓的多層建築未安裝電梯。為方便居民出行，特別是解決老年人的出行便利問題，各地政府將老房加裝電梯作為重大民生工程加以鼓勵和扶持。至2019年底，子公司上海三菱電梯在全國範圍推出30家一站式服務中心。2018年子公司上海三菱電梯完成老房加裝電梯3000台，2019年該業務的增長超過30%。
盈利預測與投資建議。公司電梯業務行業地位穩固，貢獻充足現金流，多元拓展打造新的利潤增長點。預計公司2020~2022年EPS分別為1.06/1.19/1.37元，對應PE分別為13/12/10倍，維持“持有”評級。
風險提示：電梯業務盈利能力不及預期風險，新業務發展不及預期風險。
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