科維控股(00586.HK)2019年年報點評：業績高增略超預期，快速擴張夯實護城河，維持“買入”評級
機構：中信證券
評級：買入
目標價：40.80元
核心觀點：2019年公司危廢協同處置主營延續快速擴張良好勢頭，全年固廢&危廢新增處理能力350萬噸/年；業績構成變化明顯，環保主業貢獻佔比提升至14.1%；小幅上調公司2020~2021年EPS預測至4.26/4.77元，當前股價對應PE為7/6倍，維持“買入”評級。
▍全年業績略超預期。公司全年實現收入51.2億元，同比增長77.20%；股東應占利潤69.95億元，同比增長17.63%，折算基本每股收益3.88元；此外，公司擬每股派0.65港元。公司全年業績略超預期，環保主業表現優異是主因。
▍水泥及環保主業雙突出，成本護城河堅固助力毛利率高企。從公司2019年全年利潤構成看，海螺水泥盈利高企帶動公司錄得應戰聯營公司利潤60.1億元（同比+13.9%），協同處置危廢及垃圾發電快速放量，帶動環保主業實現淨利潤9.9億元（同比+47.0%），環保主業在利潤中佔比提升至14.1%。從環保主業經營情況看，全年共處理危廢30.7萬噸、固廢36.0萬噸、生活垃圾103萬噸，公司全年固廢&危廢處置毛利率高達73.4%，同比基本持平。我們認為，危廢行業高景氣、公司成本護城河突出、高效管理等共促，公司危廢高毛利具有較強的可持續性。
▍多管齊下危廢擴張迅速，領先優勢進一步夯實。公司2019年全年新獲取危廢處置產能合計350萬噸/年，新增生活垃圾處置規模1.47萬噸/日，推動公司固廢&危廢產能增至629萬噸/年，生活垃圾產能增至3.35萬噸/日，公司正在加速向1,000萬噸/年的危廢處理目標邁進。在全年新增協同處置固廢&危廢產能中，通過海螺水泥獲取的產能合計128萬噸/年，和中國建材&蒙西水泥等公司合作拓展的產能合計173萬噸/年，非海螺水泥的協同業務拓展順利，表明公司的合作模式切實可行，管理能力得到市場充分認可，在危廢處置領域競爭優勢進一步夯實。此外，公司在傳統專業第三方處置危廢市場也有突破，有助提升公司在危廢處置領域的一站式服務能力。
▍風險因素：項目推進不及預期；政府支付能力下降；水泥價格大幅波動。
▍投資建議：考慮2019年全年業績略微超預期且公司在環保主業市場拓展順利，上調危廢處理量&生活垃圾處理量假設，並將公司2020~2021年淨利潤預測上調7.6%/4.2%至76.9/86.0億元，公司當前股價對應2020~2021年PE分別為7/6倍。給予公司環保主業2021年目標PE15倍，所持海螺水泥股權參考市值給予30%折扣，分部估值得出目標價為40.80元，維持“買入”評級。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
