信义玻璃(0868.HK)盈利水平优于行业逆势扩张提升竞争力维持“审慎增持”评级目标价9.63港元
机构:兴业证券
评级:审慎增持
目标价:9.63港元
投资要点
事件:
公司披露2019年上半年业绩:实现收益74.5亿港元,同比下滑3.8%;股东应占利润21.2亿元,同比增长5.8%;基本每股收益53.1港仙;拟每股派现25.0港仙。
点评:
(1)汽车和建玻的增长抵消了浮法玻璃的下滑,三大业务综合毛利率略下滑至36.1%。浮法玻璃价格下跌和人民币贬值共同导致该板块收入下滑14.7%,毛利下滑28.8%。贬值部分抵消北美关税的不利影响,汽车玻璃实现4%的收入增长和6%的毛利增长。建筑玻璃板块延续良好势头,公司扩大生产规模,LOE-E玻璃量价齐升,收入增长15%,毛利增长19%。
(2)美国进口关税、北海张家港新业务的前期开支及资金成本上升,三项费用率升3个点至19.4%。
(3)期内出售及摊薄信义光能股份贡献了6.33亿利润,若扣除该项所得,公司税后利润为14.93亿,同比下滑25.8%。
我们的观点:短期,6月份以来,玻璃生产线冷修条数增加,库存有所缓和,玻璃价格止跌企稳,纯碱价格回落,我们预计即将到来的旺季效应有助于催化下半年业绩。中期,无论是需求端下行还是供给端出清的周期均被显著拉长,行业有一定压力,但公司体现了较强的竞争力,凭借下游产品差异化和上游延伸、成本控制的策略,盈利尚可,安全边际较高,公司把握住行业低迷期的扩张机会,加速低端无效产能的出清,并有望最终实现产能和市场份额的同步扩张。
我们维持“审慎增持”评级,目标价9.63港元,预计公司2019-2021年实现归母净利润分别为38.61亿、39.02亿港元和42.02亿港元,2019/8/7收盘价对应2019年预测PE为7.8X,股息率6.3%。
风险提示:需求下滑、海外扩张不及预期、反倾销风险、汇率风险

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