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中国食品(00506.HK)产品组合升级带动增长内部整合持续进行给予“买入”评级目标价3.97港元
格隆汇 08-09 17:29

机构:广发证券

评级:买入

目标价:3.97港元

核心观点

业务重组聚焦可口可乐罐装业务

2017年公司参与可口可乐在华业务重组,并出售公司与饮料无关的业务,专注于可口可乐罐装业务。目前公司拥有中国19个省级单位的可口可乐专营权。2018年公司营业收入156.48亿元,同比增长17%。

可口可乐强大的品牌、研发和渠道优势保障公司稳定增长

公司一方面依托可口可乐,共享其全球广告、品牌和产品资源,另一方面利用深耕中国的成熟分销体系实现了经营区域内县级经销商全面覆盖,渠道优势明显。根据公司2018年年报,2018年公司镇级经销商覆盖率超过60%,公司对于销售渠道可控率达到81%,强大的渠道控制力为公司产品销售提供坚实的基础。可口可乐强大的产品研发能力也为公司发展提供动力,2018年中国食品一共推出了35款新产品,为公司贡献了3.5%的年销量和7.2%的年销售额。

产品结构改善,整合业务短期内有助于公司提升利润率

公司产品结构改善,无糖系列产品增长强劲,同时产品包装升级,有助于抵消原材料成本压力。短期来看,新收购灌装厂利润率存在提升空间,随着新厂经营效率提升和资源整合的进行,公司整体的利润率有望进一步提升。我们看好公司包装水业务和功能饮料的发展前景。

预计2019年-2021年EPS分别为人民币0.13、0.15和0.17元/股

公司受益于内生增长和产品结构升级推动营业收入和毛利率增长,我们预计公司2019-2021年的EPS分别为人民币0.13、0.15和0.17,当前价格对应2019-2021年PE为21.92、19.29和17.05倍,基于DCF模型下公司合理价值为3.97港元,首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。

风险提示:主要产品销售不及预期;原材料价格大幅上涨

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