雅生活服务(03319.HK)在管面积增长超预期并购整合实力强劲
机构：兴业证券
投资要点
我们的观点：2019H1公司物业管理在管面积取得亮眼增长，外延及社区增值服务亦维持了高增速。经过上市以来的稳步外拓与收购，公司形成了广泛分布且具有特色的物业管理能力，中高档、一线郊区、二三线超大盘、旅游地产等传统及特色项目均有涉及，依托雅居乐+绿地双品牌背书品质，公司在第三方及收购领域的实力领先行业。2019H1公司加速在大湾区外拓展中高端住宅、商写及公建项目，规模持续提升。截至2019H1公司合约在管比达到1.54储备充足，未来业绩有保障；账面现金超过43亿元，为全国快速拓张提供有力支撑。展望2019年，公司预计仍将保持高速增长。建议投资者持续关注。
在管面积增长超预期，第三方及收并购提前完成全年目标：截至2019H1公司在管面积达到2.11亿方，较2018年末增长52.9%；合约面积达到3.25亿方，较2018年末增长41.3%，为截至2018年度公司在管面积的1.54倍。2019全年公司预期分别结转800万方及600万方，预计雅居乐在下半年将迎来集中结转。2019H1第三方及收并购贡献在管面积达到6800万方，已基本完成全年拓展目标。上半年在管面积增长整体超预期，在此基础上，公司提升全年目标，预计2019年末在管面积将会达到2.3-2.4亿方，未来三年亦将保持7000-8000万方/年的增长。
营业收入快速增长，各项业务均高速发展：截至2019年6月30日的2019上半财年，公司录得营业收入22.4亿元，同比增长59.4%，维持高速增长。其中物业管理服务收入12.3亿元，yoy+63.7%；外延服务收入8.1亿元，yoy+40.4%，主要由3.8亿元的案场管理收入及4.3亿元的其他增值收入组成；社区增值服务收入2.1亿元，yoy+157.8%。
第三方及收并购影响物业管理毛利率，增值业务毛利率继续提升：2019H1公司物业管理服务毛利率达到26.6%，同比下降250bps，主要由于高速增长的第三方及收并购在管面积影响。社区增值服务毛利率达到51.4%，同比提升510bps。外延增值服务毛利率达到49.3%，同比提升500bps。
风险提示：1）业务扩张不及预期；2）物业管理满意度降低；3）物业管理费收缴率降低；4）物业管理费提价受阻。
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