《大行》大摩料印尼Grasberg銅礦事故令明年銅供應減60萬磅 佔礦產供應量1.2% 推動銅價上升
摩根士丹利發表報告表示,Freeport-McMoRan(FCX.US)公布旗下印尼Grasberg礦場事故,9月8日,Grasberg Block Cave(GBC)出現大規模泥石流,導致80萬公噸濕物料湧入礦井,波及多個工作面,包括工人作業正在進行開發服務層。這場事故導致兩名工人死亡,另有五名工人仍然失蹤,救援行動目前仍是公司最高優先事項。FPT Freeport Indonesia(PTFI)已暫停作業。PTFI已針對相關合約宣布不可抗力。公司與獨立專家合作展開事故調查,預期2025年底前可完成,同時持續評估基礎設施與設備損毀情況,事件發生在Grasberg Block Cave的1號生產區,但也影響到其他區塊所需的支援性設施。
由於這個事故,Freeport-McMoRan下調第三季銅銷售量預估4%,黃金銷售量預估6%,並預計第三季EBITDA為24.35億美元,每股盈利預測為0.32美元,較此前預期下降約5%。
更長期的影響在於,Grasberg Block Cave預計將從2026年開始分階段重啟,並於2026年底前逐步恢復,但產能要到2027年才有可能恢復到事故前的水平。初步預估,2026年PTFI生產規模僅能恢復到事故前預估的65%,銅產量約17億磅、黃金160萬安士,2026年EBITDA預估為112.1億美元,每股盈利預測為2.46美元,亦較此前預期下降21%與18%。由於PTFI重啟過程比分析員預期更長,對產出的負面影響也更大,已導致Freeport股價明顯下跌。基於初步下修後的預估,Freeport-McMoRan目標價將從48美元降至40美元。
對銅市的影響方面,儘管中國需求有放緩跡象,但近幾個月來智利、剛果及本次印尼事故等多地供應中斷,已經加速全球銅供應的收緊。據WoodMac估算,截至今年8月,銅市已有3.7%或90萬噸供應遭遇干擾,預計全年損失會更大。最新的預估顯示,Grasberg事故導致的2026年銅供應將減少約60萬噸(2026年銅產量將減少約60萬磅(約27萬噸,約佔礦產供應量的1.2%),這將進一步加劇該行原本已經預期在2026年會出現的供給缺口,並增加銅價的上漲風險,同時美元走弱也將對銅價有所支撐,並帶動銅價走升。
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