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《大行》大摩料內地豪車經銷商受惠於行業整合 看好中升(00881.HK)途虎(09690.HK)
摩根士丹利研究報告指,內地汽車行業產能削減推動行業整合,相信豪華汽車經銷商將會首先受惠;預期2025至26年經銷商門店加速關店,因新車綜合利潤率於今年上半年已跌至低於1%,對小型經銷商而言不再具吸引力,而車企亦計劃在2026年底前將內地經銷網絡縮減10%至30%,相關整合將有利於財務狀況穩健的經銷商。 該行認爲,中升控股(00881.HK)等授權經銷商仍將主導汽車意外維修業務,而途虎(09690.HK)等獨立維修店則可在保養與小型維修領域獲取市場份額。撇除2020至21年受疫情影響,中升控股的維修服務毛利在2017至2024年間年均複合增長率達14%,預計未來可繼續支持核心盈利。 該行相信中升控股在經歷四年的下行週期後,終於迎來轉捩點。雖然市場憂慮其盈利持續下滑,但該行預期集團2026年盈利將按年反彈67%至40億元人民幣,由新車利潤率復甦、平治和問界車型上行週期,及意外維修市場份額提高所推動。同時,資本開支需求下降,意味2026年的預期股息收益率5%仍有上行空間;目標價由15港元升至21港元,評級「增持」。 該行亦予途虎「增持」評級,預期公司2025至27年盈利年均複合增長率達25%,基於藉應用程式用戶增長與加盟店擴張;目標價由20港元升至23港元。 至於永達汽車(03669.HK)目標價由2.4港元降至2.3港元,美東汽車(01268.HK)目標價由2.2港元降至2.1港元,均獲「與大市同步」評級。
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