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花旗料港樓價於下半年橫行 超豪宅市場或續跑贏大市
花旗銀行投資策略及資產配置主管廖嘉豪預期,本港樓價或在今年下半年橫行,惟需待長遠供需平衡改善才可支持住宅價格回升。他預計,2027年的成交量將可超過同年的竣工單位數量
他續指,投資需求廣泛回升或仍需時,因投資需求往往更取決於樓價預期,以及穩定長期利率。另外,花旗分析員預期,最新一份《施政報告》優化資本投資計劃後,超豪宅市場或將繼續跑贏大市。
股市方面,廖嘉豪表示,由於互聯網行業比較基數較低、綜合企業盈利受惠全球經濟增長、工業股在美國減息後需求回升,及必需消費品行業增長強韌,恆指2026年每股盈利預測由三個月前的 8.1%上調至 9.8%。
花旗分析員認為,中國第十五個五年規劃有望成為推動多個行業增長的正面催化劑,當中包括科技、旅遊、醫療保健、保險及可再生能源行業等。
至於黃金的強勁勢頭則或可持續至明年首季,週期性及結構性因素均支持金價升勢,短線預計可看每安士3,800美元。
美國方面,廖嘉豪指,未來數月美國就業市場或有下行風險,有機會令市場對聯儲局的減息預期繼續升溫,利淡美元。花旗分析員的基本預測為今年下半年環球經濟軟著陸,而美國經濟數據持續跑輸,就令美元出現最後一輪跌勢,惟相信僅屬週期性,預計明年美元或可收復失地。
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