《大行》大摩:盈利上升基調有望延續至明年 內地互聯網、醫藥、汽車等核心板塊盈測獲市場上調
摩根士丹利發表報告表示,MSCI中國指數今年向上,除市場情緒及流動性支持外,企業基本面改善亦體現於指數的盈利穩定及正面修訂幅度,該行識別了對指數盈利增長最為關鍵的行業,以評估持續性。
該行指,中國股票市場(MSCI中國指數)在過去12個月錄得全球最佳表現,總回報達48%,年初至今亦以38%的回報位列全球第二,僅次於韓國(50%)。該行認為本輪升勢背後有結構性改善支持,包括股本回報率(ROE)見底回升、資金持續流向高質大型股,以及當局對民營企業與創新的支持力度加大,相關進展擺脫了過往宏觀周期主導的階段,同時也明顯改善了投資者情緒,成為盈利估值重估(re-rating)的有力支持。
大摩稱,盈利增長成為本輪升市中基本面改善的關鍵要素,自2023年以來已連續三年成為推動市場表現的核心動力:該行將MSCI中國指數自2010年起的年度總回報拆分為股息、每股盈利增長(EPS)以及估值重估(re-rating)三部分。每股盈利增長自2023年起連續三年對MSCI中國指數的按年總回報作出正面貢獻:2023年貢獻0.6個百分點,2024年貢獻5.0個百分點,2025年至今貢獻3.2個百分點,這是自2010年以來首次出現EPS增長連續三年皆為正貢獻。
若進一步分析按月回報,明顯的拐點出現在2024年下半年,自此盈利增長對指數每月回報的正面貢獻率提升至約75%,較之前僅50%有明顯提升。
大摩展望未來,中國股市盈利增長的持續性前景樂觀:互聯網、科技、醫藥、汽車等核心板塊的盈利預測持續獲得市場上調,估值亦處於合理水平。雖然內銀板塊的盈利預測調整仍以調降為主,但由於其對整體指數盈利增長的權重貢獻有限,預計行業壓力不會拖累大市走勢。
該行認為今年內地電商行業的激烈價格競爭有望結束,預計將帶動該板塊盈利於2026年重新加速增長,而2025年的短暫放緩僅屬階段性調整。
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