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《大行》瑞銀:若美聯儲啟減息週期但無經濟衰退 歷史上股市12個月後平均上漲17% 新興市場看好中國等
瑞銀發表全球市場策略報告表示,當美聯儲局重新開始減息週期下,情境若假設今次經濟沒有衰退:在美聯儲降息的情況下,有56%的時間隨後會出現經濟衰退(平均大約在五個月後發生,如果真的出現的話),而在過去40年中,當美聯儲降息幅度超過75個基點後,最終都發生了衰退。然而,該行沒有看到典型的衰退前兆(如大宗商品衝擊、私人部門或銀行過度槓桿、或明顯的投資過剩)。上一次美聯儲局在沒有衰退的情況下重新啟動寬鬆週期已是2002年6月。 該行指,如果美聯儲局從9月17日到年底累積減息共1厘,那麼將出現該行認為形成泡沫所需的七個條件。該行認為2026年出現泡沫的機率為35%(因此該行維持對2026年底MSCI AC World指數目標1,020點)。如果美聯儲降息但沒有衰退,歷史上股市在12個月後平均上漲17%。自1981年以來,僅有一次情況出現過美聯儲在暫停6個月以上後繼續降息,而並未出現衰退(2002年6月),當時市場在一年後上漲了15%。對該行而言,目前最類似的時期是1998年9月。 瑞銀指,這進一步強化AI投資主題。在第一次降息後的12個月內,如果沒有經濟衰退,科技板塊有75%的時間表現優於大市。如果短端利率下降幅度大於長端利率,且沒有衰退,軟體板塊是表現最好的;在降息週期重啟後的12個月內,納斯達克指數總是表現優於大市,若同時沒有衰退,成功率達80%。若有泡沫,該行認為可能出現在生成式AI主題(該行首選Meta(META.US)、微軟(MSFT.US)、亞馬遜(AMZN.US)與台積電(TSM.US)),還有電氣化(首選Eaton(ETN.US)、施耐德(SU.FR))及黃金。 瑞銀表示聚焦新興市場。在美聯儲開始降息週期且沒有衰退的情況下,新興市場有75%的時間在隨後的12個月裡表現優於大市;若是暫停一段時間後重啟降息,則新興市場總是表現優異。該行最近已上調新興市場評級,特別看好巴西、中國,以及間接受益的新興市場標的。該行建議繼續超配黃金股。在美聯儲重新開始降息後,黃金在1個月、3個月、6個月與12個月內的表現始終上漲。美元走弱亦有利黃金(若美元下跌10%料黃金可上漲約9%),該行保持長期看漲黃金股。
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