《大行》高盛:升阿里巴巴(09988.HK)目標價至174元 看好雲端AI驅動增長複合潛力
高盛研究報告指出,自上個月度報告以來,中國AI基礎設施、模型、應用層面出現了多項重要進展,值得關注,包括:AI基礎設施層面的更新敘事;新推出的中國AI模型,包括阿里巴巴的Qwen3-Next、百度(09888.HK)(BIDU.US)X1.1、騰訊(00700.HK)(TCEHY.US)HYWorld-Voyager 3D及多種多模態模型,近期焦點圍繞字節跳動Seedream 4.0與NanoBanana的圖像編輯、生產力功能比較;交易平臺推出的AI助理(例如阿里巴巴的Amap 2025、美團(03690.HK)的Xiao Mei);從高盛近期美國Communacopia + Technology會議上美國同行的評論中,對中國全套AI+雲端超大規模企業的正面啓示,對於擁有差異化SOTA(最先進)AI模型和推理晶片能力的公司,雲端對C端和B端的增長潛力顯着。
高盛將阿里巴巴雲端估值上調,從原本每ADS36美元升至43美元,基於對2026財年第二至第四季度雲端增長假設,上調至按年升30%至32%(原爲28%至30%),並相應將阿里巴巴的SOTP(分部估值法)12個月目標價,美股從163美元上調至179美元,港股目標價從158港元上調至174港元;維持「買入」評級。
高盛認爲,中國雲端超大規模企業的多晶片策略已更新了中國AI雲端行業的敘事(不再僅依賴海外晶片供應),爲該行業帶來複合增長潛力,這支撐了該行近期對雲端與數據中心子行業的偏好升級;並預測中國雲端服務提供商(CSP)的資本支出將在2025年第三季度年增39%,這可能促進AI雲端收入的持續增長。
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