中美AI競逐:模型與資本開支差距縮小 財通證券稱聯想有望走出慢牛趨勢
近日,財通證券郝彥輝團隊發佈研報稱,從目前中美互聯網廠商AI佈局對比來看,模型與資本開支的差距正在縮小。全球大模型已經初步形成由 OpenAI、Anthropic、谷歌及特斯拉主導的競爭格局,中國企業中 DeepSeek 及阿里通義千問躋身第一梯隊。
根據 GPQA 測試結果,前 25 名主要由 OpenAI、Anthropic、微軟、谷歌、Meta 旗下大模型構成,中國企業佔比較低,其中 DeepSeek-V3/R1 於 2024年 12 月/2025 年 1 月發佈後攪動全球 AI 格局,正式代表中國/開源大模型對齊 SOTA;阿里 Qwen-3 緊隨其後,表現進入第一梯隊。
近期來看,頭部科技廠商均大力投入大模型的訓練,並通過推理使模型適用於自身業務;訓練+推理共同提振自用算力需求。而在外供方面,雲廠商也在自有雲計算平臺上提供大模型API,MaaS 的商業模式帶動外供算力放量。在內外需均旺盛的前提下,公司均加速算力資源投入,推動 CapEx 高增。微軟/谷歌/Meta/亞馬遜資本開支密度(資本開支佔收入比重)於 2Q2025 達到 34.8%/23.3%/35.8%/18.7%。國內互聯網大廠方面,2Q2025,百度/阿里/騰訊資本開支分別同比+10.2%/+162.7%/+319.1%至 23/318/366 億元。國內大廠加速 AI 投入的開啓時點晚於海外一年左右,目前 CapEX 佔收入比重相比海外巨頭差距仍較大。
投資建議方面,建議關注:
美團:估值回調後具備修復空間
金蝶國際:雲業務持續高增,訂閱化轉型帶來可持續的 ARR 增長,AI+ERP 有望打開新一輪增長曲線
聯想集團:有望走出慢牛趨勢,AI PC 產品週期開啓,數據中心業務受益 AI 算力需求提升
騰訊控股:長期優選
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