《大行》大摩對內地軟件行業持謹慎態度 首選北森控股(09669.HK)
摩根士丹利研究報告指,就內地軟件行業基本面而言,該行仍保持謹慎態度,因預期內地GDP增長將放緩,且通縮壓力依然存在,企業對IT投資的信心仍較低,相信要待通縮結束後1至2年纔會恢復。在需求出現實質轉折前,任何供應端推動的新技術趨勢,都只能夠促使現有的預算在市場中重新分配。
資金方面,該行認爲板塊在低利率環境下將跟隨整體市場流動性,且有更高彈性(Beta),因主動型基金的相關配置比重極低。主題投資如AI應用、科技本土化和穩定幣等,可能對股價產生顯着影響,但目前該行尚未發現到可以真正扭轉行業基本面的主題。
股份方面,該行強烈建議H股多於A股;行業首選爲北森控股(09669.HK),目標價10.3元,評級「增持」,預期收入將加速增長;其次爲金蝶國際(00268.HK)、中國軟件國際(00354.HK)及金山軟件(03888.HK),目標價分別爲14.2元、6.6元(原本5.4元)及38元,均予「與大市同步」評級。
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