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《大行》大摩:中國內房八月銷售大幅下降 第四季度展望持續疲弱
摩根士丹利研究報告指,中國內房銷售在8月份,因建築活動減弱而錄得更大幅的按年下降,對實體市場保持謹慎,預計第四季度銷售疲弱趨勢將持續,原因是居民情緒惡化、庫存增加及政策力度有限。 大摩表示,內地全國銷售(經重新基準化)在價值上按年下降14%,在交易量上下降10.6%,使今年前八個月累計下降擴大至價值跌7.3%、交易量按年跌4.7%。國家統計局70城房價持續穩步下跌,八月一級市場按月下降0.3%,二級市場按月下降0.6%,其中一線城市一級市場下降0.1%,二級市場下降1%。 此外,內地八月竣工量按年下降21%,使2025年前八個月累計下降擴大至跌17%。新開工量八月按年下降20%,使前八個月累計下降加深至跌19.5%。鑑於土地銷售疲軟、庫存水平居高不下,以及開發商對實體市場仍持謹慎態度,第四季度建築活動可能持續疲弱,對大摩低於市場共識的2025年新開工量(跌19%)及房地產投資(跌11%)預測構成潛在下行風險。 大摩表示,高頻房地產銷售數據顯示近期年比年降幅擴大,而二級市場的掛牌價格降低及高掛牌量,表明內地居民情緒在交易量減少的情況下轉趨謹慎。考慮到近幾個月房價下降趨勢穩定,以及房地產市場在推動經濟增長中的作用減弱,重申全國性房市政策的增量支持將保持有限。結合基數效應上升,預計未來幾個月房地產銷售將錄得更大幅的按年下降。 大摩維持防守策略,建議繼續持有具備良好可見度的國有企業:消費受益者—華潤置地(01109.HK)及華潤萬象生活(01209.HK);高股息收益率選擇—建發國際(01908.HK)。
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