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《大行》星展上調恆指12個月目標至28,000點 樂觀情景下可達30,500點
星展發表港股策略報告表示,港股於9月以來累漲4.5%,再度刷新今年以來高位,儘管個別公司業績分化及內地通縮憂慮未消,但受到主要由人工智能、電池及生物科技等少數板塊領漲。南下資金流入加,主因A股於急升後回調,加上報遁指監管出手降溫,A股升勢暫歇。 展望未來,該行重申對港股的長期樂觀看法,儘管短期或有獲利回吐壓力,地緣政治消息亦或重現。雖然企業中期業績帶來輕微盈利下調,但恆指估值在流動性帶動的全球升市中變得更具吸引力。各行業持續的「反內卷」行動,亦有助穩定市場對宏觀經濟的預期。香港流動性雖略趨緊,但美國PPI意外下滑及就業數據轉弱,令市場預期年內會有更多減息。長期而言,香港IPO活躍,有助改善市場結構,繼續吸引全球長線增長型投資者。 基於上述分析,星展上調恆指12個月目標至28,000點(原爲26,000點),此調整反映:1)更新2025及2026年盈利預測至-2.2%及12.1%;2)估值倍數預測由11.6倍上調至13倍。新目標假設恆指與MSCI的國家世界指數(ACWI)的估值差距將重返十年平均水平。相信困擾香港市場多年的結構性估值折讓(如中國政策不明朗、本港流動性偏弱)已基本消化。自去年9月以來的政策轉向,加上「反內卷」措施,亦有助穩定宏觀及企業盈利預期。 新目標與風險溢價模型相符,目前達5.8%,該行預期市場風險溢價將壓縮至5.4%-5.5%(即較十年均值低約1個標準差),過往數年多次驗證此水平。假設南下資金持續增加(內地債息回落),此溢價水平對應恆指約28,000點。若樂觀情景下,風險溢價重返2020-21年科網牛市低位,恆指可達30,500點,但此情況需基本面明顯改善、政策加碼或流動性更寬鬆配合。 星展表示,重申偏好科技及非銀金融,而「反內卷」行動繼續在太陽能及電池等板塊帶來交易機會。消費板塊估值已趨合理,上調至中性。首選股方面,剔出中創新航(03931.HK),換入攜程(09961.HK),以捕捉國慶假期前旅遊業回暖機會。
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