《大行》中央考慮助地方政府向民企償還1萬億貸款 瑞銀:對內銀影響略微正面 維持建設性看法
瑞銀髮表研究報告指出,彭博週四引述知情人士報道指,中國據報正考慮要求政策性銀行(例如國家開發銀行)及國有商業銀行向地方政府提供融資,用於結清企業欠款。此長期計劃的第一階段旨在解決至少一萬億人民幣拖欠私營企業的債務,目標完成日期定於2027年。
瑞銀表示,早前於2月演說中,國家主席習近平強調解決地方政府延遲支付企業款項的緊迫性,警告此問題可能侵蝕公衆對政府的信任,嚴重影響私營企業業務,並損害整個社會。若彭博新聞中的計劃實施,瑞銀認爲新發行的銀行貸款仍可能發放予LGFV(地方政府融資平臺),因爲地方政府被禁止直接向銀行借款。
根據瑞銀先前的計算,LGFV至2024年上半年可能有3.5萬億元人民幣應付款項。其中,估計已結清超過1萬億元人民幣,因爲瑞銀曾估計,約30%至50%的債務置換收益用於此目的,而2024年下半年、2025年上半年已分別發行2萬億元、1.8萬億元人民幣特別再融資債券。
瑞銀認爲,上述舉措對銀行的影響包括:銀行貸款量輕微增加,略爲正面:假設1萬億元人民幣貸款於2026及2027年兩年內發放,每年5,000億元人民幣,相較於每年17至18萬億元人民幣的銀行貸款增長看來微不足道,或僅相當於行業貸款餘額的0.2個百分點增加。即使如此,瑞銀仍視此追加爲對銀行的正面因素,因爲銀行目前面臨貸款需求疲弱。
其次爲整體資產質量可能改善:減少對企業(例如上遊供應商)的欠款,可能有助改善企業流動性,進一步刺激企業投資及消費者信心,從廣泛角度有利於銀行的營運。此外,瑞銀認爲,額外貸款可能帶有政府紓困預期,借款人爲政府認可的實體,仍可增加債務。貸款收益率壓力亦看來有限。
瑞銀提及,根據新聞,可能的貸款機構爲國家開發銀行及國有銀行。雖然可能對中國的銀行承擔國家職責有所擔憂,但預期下行有限,因爲銀行已知對LGFV的敞口很大,估計至2024年上半年達40萬億元人民幣。
瑞銀對中國銀行維持建設性看法,特別是那些股息高且可持續的,例如工商銀行(01398.HK)、建設銀行(00939.HK)、中信銀行(00998.HK)及招商銀行(600036.SH)。瑞銀亦青睞區域銀行,其擁有吸引人的股息收益率、穩健的盈利增長及高ROE:成都銀行(601838.SH)及杭州銀行(600926.SH)。
(瑞銀對銀行股的評級見另表)
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