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惠譽:中資銀行政策支持走強 但息差或繼續承壓
評級機構惠譽稱,中國監管加大了對無抵押零售信貸及部分借款人再融資需求的支持力度。作為更廣泛促進消費方案的一部分,監管部門計劃使用財政資金,對新發放的符合條件的消費貸款提供最高達1個百分點的利息補貼。然而,惠譽評級認為,該政策能否有效提振貸款需求以及緩解銀行淨息差壓力仍存在不確定性。截至今年第二季,行業整體淨息差按年下降12個基點至1.4%。 近年來,無抵押零售信貸(主要為信用卡與消費貸款)的增長放緩,去年僅增長6%,而2014至2024年的複合年增長率為18%。這主要反映在經濟成長趨緩的背景下,房地產產業持續承壓以及居民收入前景走弱。資產品質指標亦有所走弱,全行業信用卡貸款6個月及以上逾期率由2023年底的1.1%升至2024年底的1.4%。 不過,惠譽評級預期,受評中資銀行的無抵押零售資產品質僅溫和受壓。雖然一些中型銀行在無抵押零售信貸方面的敞口較大,但近年來更為嚴格的授信標準以及側重較高收入客戶將緩解相關風險。中國居民部門的槓桿水平適中,居民儲蓄率較高,這些都將對風險形成緩衝。 下行風險可能來自消費貸款資金被挪用於投機或購屋等用途。對於部分無抵押貸款敞口較高的中型銀行而言,若居民償付能力明顯走弱,或在放鬆授信標準的同時無抵押貸款過度擴張,其生存力評級(VR)可能面臨壓力。
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