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《大行》匯研:香港房地產基本面逐步改善 恆地(00012.HK)新地(00016.HK)為樓市復甦關鍵受益者
匯豐環球研究發表報告指,香港房地產及綜合企業板塊一如預期展現業務韌性,今年上半年續錄溫和盈利增長,更多公司股息已恢復增長,確認匯研認為股息削減週期最差階段已過去的觀點。 匯研相信,股息增長確定性上升和收益率前景可能吸引投資者。但香港房地產尚未完全脫離困境,匯研仍看到挑戰,如辦公室板塊的短期供應激增和消費模式的變化。然而,隨著更多跡象顯示住房市場趨於穩定及降息週期開始,認為整個行業會逐步應對逆風,這應有利於股價表現。 匯研強調業績中的五大觀察,可能推動行業前景,包括股息前景改善、住宅銷售呈現積極勢頭、購物人數增加,但商場需進化、辦公室租賃表現好於預期,以及借貸成本降低。 匯研相信,像恆地(00012.HK)和新地(00016.HK)等開發商可能是住房市場復甦週期的關鍵受益者。匯研看到九龍倉置業(01997.HK)和希慎興業(00014.HK)的商場組合將受益於消費增長,受到正面財富效應和遊客到訪推動。置地公司和太古地產(01972.HK)的新策略似乎正在推動估值重評。 整體而言,6月底止,匯研覆蓋的公司的槓桿比率較去年底溫和下降0.5個百分點至20.4%。展望未來,未來12個月整體行業的槓桿水平可能進一步改善(匯研對香港房地產企業的評級及目標價見另表)。
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