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《大行》花旗:中資科網股首選騰訊、阿里及攜程等 估資金轉向「AI與雲計算」板塊
花旗發表報告稱,中國互聯網行業板塊今年以來累漲44.8%,優於東南亞(+24.7%)、日本(+21.9%)及美國(+19.2%),驅動因素來自貿易關稅不確定性緩和,以及區域性資金流動輪動。雖然估值倍數已有一定修復,但多數中資互聯網公司相較於全球同業及中國境內其他科技/消費類個股仍具折讓。隨着阿里巴巴(09988.HK)及騰訊(00700.HK)展現出AI驅動的正向乘數效應,加上產業垂直領域對AI的加速採用,該行預計下半年資金將從「體驗與服務消費」板塊轉向「AI與雲計算」相關股份。而外賣與即時零售的競爭料將延續至四季度,而遊戲業務則有望受惠於 新玩法與高黏性持續增長。 該行行首選包括1)騰訊(目標價735港元)、阿里巴巴(目標價187美元、183港元)——核心AI主題標的、2)拼多多(PDD.US)(目標價168美元)——高啤打配置、3)攜程(TCOM.US)(目標價85美元)及滿幫(YMM.US)(目標價16美元)、4)ST華通(002602.SZ)(目標價21元人民幣)。 隨着中國本土AI技術研發帶動企業加速採用,該行判斷下半年投資者關注點將再度聚焦於具備AI主題的公司。資金流向將自今年上半年領漲的休閒/娛樂板塊輪動至雲基礎設施與廣告公司,而遊戲股因用戶黏性強,盈利具韌性,預計也將持續獲得支持。 花旗持續將騰訊視爲核心持股,公司具備AI放大效應的上行潛力。在第二季度財報後,該行對騰訊的看法更爲正面,因爲公司展現瞭如何運用AI來提升其消費者應用,明顯體現在遊戲製作、遊戲體驗與遊戲推廣中的AI驅動工具,以及在廣告推薦與轉換效果上更強的AI能力。展望未來,隨着長線熱門遊戲的穩健收入、升級後的廣告平臺,以及企業對GPU基礎設施需求的上升,各業務板塊的成長軌跡更加具說服力。該行持續看好騰訊的成長前景,受惠於其卓越的執行紀錄、穩定的遊戲利潤、持續穩健的廣告收入,以及在 AI 轉型驅動下的企業服務收入成長。 該行續將阿里巴巴視爲中國AI投資的代理標的。憑藉其強大的AI能力,包括通義千問模型、多模態雲基礎設施,以及在中國產業企業中的強勁滲透力,該行預期阿里雲的收入在接下來幾個季度將持續逐步加速,延續過去五個季度的增速回升。雖然近期中國電商業務EBITA利潤受到即時零售戰略性大幅投資的拖累,但令人鼓舞的是公司用戶數據、初步協同效應,以及對CMR增長帶來潛在額外廣告收入的貢獻,都意味着這一突如其來的戰略轉變,正在對整體「電商+即時零售」生態體系產生協同效果,這有助於緩解投資人的疑慮。
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