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《大行》野村:美團(03690.HK)食品配送平台主導地位減弱 目標價降至123元
野村發表報告指,阿里巴巴(09988.HK)(BABA.US)在業績電話會議中表示,計劃在未來兩個月內將虧損/訂單削減50%,顯示阿里同美團(03690.HK)之間的競爭可能在今年夏季即第三季見頂。 該行預計,阿里同美團的食品配送業務在第三季虧損可能大幅增加。估計美團的食品配送業務在第三季度可能虧損188億元人民幣,相當於每單虧損2.71元人民幣;而阿里在同一季度可能虧損358億元人民幣,阿里為了獲取用戶和加強其在第三季度因訂單激增而壓力巨大的配送網絡,不得不投入比美團更多的資金。該行預計美團食品配送業務在第四季的虧損將縮窄至51億元人民幣,相當於每股虧損0.77元人民幣。 該行相信,美團仍為中國最大的食品配送平台,但主導地位可能減弱。儘管阿里外賣訂單份額快速增長,該行認為現在宣稱阿里勝出仍為時過早,因阿里的訂單中有近30%來自飲料,這部分需求容易受到補貼的影響。當阿里逐步取消補貼時,能否保留這部分需求仍有待觀察。在交易總額方面,該行認為美團仍將是最大的食品配送平台,預計今年底將佔據58%的市場份額,而阿里巴巴為28%。 該行預期,受食品配送業務的更高投資影響,2025財年美團將錄得60億元人民幣淨虧損,相比之前預測的376億元人民幣淨利潤。維持「買入」評級,目標價從176港元下調至123港元。
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