《大行》美銀證券料政策憧憬為內地房市提供良好支持 首選中海外(00688.HK)建發國際(01908.HK)
美銀證券研究報告指出,中國房地產行業今年上半年財報如預期疲弱(反映過去四年房價下跌),但該行看到兩個亮點,包括利潤率按半年趨穩,部分頂尖開發商如中海外(00688.HK)、建發國際(01908.HK)對利潤率改善更具信心;部分管理團隊對中央政府進一步支持政策較預期更樂觀正面。
另一方面,8月前100大開發商的合約銷售表現疲弱,按年下跌22%。若銷售無顯著反彈,第四季度將面臨更嚴峻的比較基數,若一手房價進一步走弱,利潤率改善情況可能消散。
美銀證券認為,未來一個月內,政策預期可能為該行業提供良好支撐,但需要更果斷的政策來突破交易區間;該行上調對中海外和建發國際預測,並相應提高目標價分別5%及2%,鑑於基本面穩固,列為行業首選。該行對萬科企業(02202.HK)及中國金茂(00817.HK)維持「跑輸大市」評級,因其財報展望不佳。
美銀證券覆蓋的中國房地產開發商報告中,2025上半年核心利潤下降約50%,建發國際及濱江集團(002244.SZ)除外,實現按年利潤增長。平均毛利率為15%,按半年保持穩定(儘管按年仍下降),因2022年收購的低成本庫存開始進入入賬管道。借貸利率全面顯著下降。
該行上調對華潤置地(01109.HK)及建發國際的預測,但因2025上半年表現,降低龍湖集團(00960.HK)的2025財年預測(具體評級及目標價見另表)。
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