郭思治:大市急升並再呈欲試頂之趨勢 阿里加大AI投資惹憧憬
致富證券市務總監郭思治稱,大市剛踏進9月份即大幅急升,在阿里-W(09988.HK)大幅上升刺激下,恆指早市先大幅高開431點至25,508點,其後曾略爲拉鋸至25,471點,但由於沽壓不大,加上買盤又不斷隨着涌現,故整個大市卒再進一步急升至25,638點方漸呈規限,即其時大市已一度急升561點,由於大市已急升不少,故高臺漸見拉鋸,而市勢亦漸陷拉鋸之中,恆指最後報收25,617點,較上日上升539點,大市全日之成交金額爲3,802億元。
*阿里AI戰略驅動雲業務加速 投入漸現成果*
阿里6月底止首財季交出亮眼業績,彰顯出其核心業務的韌性與推動力,吸引投資者的高度關注。集團收入爲2,476.52億元人民幣(下同),按年增長1.8%,大致符合市場預期。若撇除高鑫零售(06808.HK)和銀泰已處置業務的收入,收入按年增長10%。阿里明確聚焦於「消費+AI雲」的雙主軸戰略,核心業務均展現穩健的增長動能,中國電商客戶管理收入按年提升10%,國際業務增長19%,而雲智能集團的增長率則達到26%。
財報顯示,阿里雲收入大漲26%至333.98億元,增速在過去季度不斷提升,本季增速更創三年新高。雲業務表現大超市場預期,帶動績後阿里股價急升。
AI應用的快速發展及阿里雲AI產品的市場接受度提升,本季阿里雲外部商業化收入按年增長26%。AI相關產品收入已連續八個季度三位數增長,目前AI佔外部商業化收入比例超過20%。全球領先企業應用軟件供應商SAP與阿里合作,利用通義千問模型爲企業客戶提供AI升級,這代表SAP生態中國際企業對其技術能力的認可。
*AI模型創新與應用加速*
根據Omdia最新發布的報告,阿里雲在生成式AI市場的技術實力及完善佈局是行業領導者。阿里擁有全球第四、亞洲第一的雲,已經成功建立從AI算力、AI雲平臺、AI模型、開源生態到AI應用的全棧技術能力,是阿里獨特競爭優勢,使其能夠規模化放大AI帶來的增量市場。
值得注意的是,阿里在AI模型能力方面迅速發展。7月以來,阿里持續發佈新版本的Qwen3非思考基礎模型及其他模型,涵蓋基礎模型、編程、推理和視頻生成等領域。此外,通義還開源了多模態模型,如視頻生成模型Wan2.2和文生圖模型Qwen-Image,支持客戶發展AI應用。
在AI原生應用方面,高德地圖在8月全面實現AI化,推出全球首個基於地圖的AI應用。釘釘完成了AI升級,推出以Agent驅動的「釘釘ONE」辦公應用生態。淘寶則實現AI搜索和AI廣告平臺等多項升級,提升消費者體驗和商家效率。這些部署和產業合作有助於加速AI的大規模升級,爲集團持續突破帶來新的動力。
*加大AI投資*
阿里在本季對AI+雲的資本支出達到386億元,過去四個季度,阿里在AI基礎設施和產品研發上的總投入已超過1,000億元,「AI+雲」投入漸現成果。集團看好中國市場中AI對於雲計算市場帶來的變革,在阿里雲客戶對AI需求恢復高速增長下,有信心以超越市場水平的增速,繼續擴大阿里雲的市場份額,並堅持三年投入3,800億元的計劃,持續用於建設雲和AI硬件基礎設施。這樣的規模化投入有助阿里在AI和雲基礎設施市場中保持領先地位。
展望未來,阿里以「消費+AI雲」爲核心,行業地位突出,業務估值具備上行潛力。結合電商平臺與雲計算科技的疊加效應,建議持有者繼續持有,未持有者可考慮分段吸納,靜待技術紅利的釋放及長期增值。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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