《大行》交銀國際:港股有望延續向好勢頭 採高彈性及高股息啞鈴型策略
交銀國際發表報告表示,8月以來海外宏觀環境的不確定性延續降溫態勢,美國特朗普政府「對等關稅2.0」政策於月初落地,美國與主要經濟體就貿易框架達成初步共識,同時宣佈將對華關稅措施延遲90天實施並繼續推進雙邊談判。宏觀不確定性改善爲全球風險資產營造了相對友好的投資環境。
該行指,內地「反內卷」政策效應持續釋放,流動性波動對交投活躍度形成擾動。「反內卷」政策持續推進,相關預期繼續推動傳統週期行業及部分新興產業龍頭企業的估值修復進程。然而,8月下旬港股本地流動性出現階段性收緊,1個月及3個月HIBOR快速回升至3%以上水平,在一定程度上影響了市場交易活躍度,但政策驅動的結構性機會仍在延續。
交銀國際指,海內外流動性寬鬆週期下,港股有望延續向好勢頭。當前中國流動性延續寬鬆,A股市場情緒活躍,亦有望提振港股交易氛圍。南向資金對港股科技等高景氣度板塊的配置需求保持旺盛,資金淨流入態勢有望延續。海外方面,美聯儲主席鮑威爾早前於全球央行年會上釋放9月降息大門敞開的信號,全球流動性環境的邊際寬鬆將有利於資金流向新興市場,港股作爲重要的離岸中國資產及AI科技主題配置標的,有望受益於外資流入的增加。
該行認爲行業配置延續「高彈性」+「高股息」啞鈴型策略,並結合政策催化適度調整:1)互聯網及AI硬科技板塊:降息預期下科技股估值修復邏輯增強,疊加「反內卷」政策持續推進。海外科技巨頭二季度財報顯示AI相關資本支出保持強勁增長,爲產業鏈上下遊提供持續需求動力,但需防範部分AI概念股估值過熱的調整風險。2)生物醫藥板塊:全球降息週期啓動有利於生物醫藥板塊估值修復,中國創新藥出海進程加速,BD合作活躍度持續提升,但仍需警惕前期漲幅較大標的的獲利回吐壓力。3)「反內卷」政策受益標的:政策主線邏輯延續,鋼鐵、化工等傳統週期行業以及光伏、鋰電、新能源汽車等新興產業中具備競爭優勢的龍頭企業,將在行業整合和格局優化過程中獲得更大發展空間。4)高股息防禦性配置:降息環境下,高息資產相對稀缺價值更加突出,銀行、保險、公用事業等板塊憑藉穩定的分紅回報和較強的防禦屬性,可作爲組合配置的壓艙石。
該行列出9月研選股份名單包括:奇富科技(QFIN.US)、置富(00778.HK)、豪威集團(603501.SH)、快手-W(01024.HK)、阿里巴巴(BABA.US)(09988.HK)、中國重汽(03808.HK)、康方生物(09926.HK)、泡泡瑪特(09992.HK)及中國電力(02380.HK)。
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