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《大行》海通國際:阿里短期或提振港股 大市補漲後料迴歸震盪 科網股續獲南向資金青睞
海通國際近日發表港股策略報告表示,港股流動性與匯率壓制減緩,短期有情緒提振但仍需密切關注在岸和離岸流動性:料市場情緒面改善但空間有限:阿里(BABA.US)績後大漲近13%,短期或提振港股,但考慮到A股和美股均接近階段頂部,港股補漲後預計仍將回歸震盪。 中長期來看,東昇西落的科技敘事有望持續強化。流動性方面,HIBOR上週急升後本週漲勢趨緩:隔夜升至4%,1個月升至3.3%,對港股流動性仍構成壓制。匯率方面,人民幣走強有望短期支持港股,但後續仍需觀察美元走勢和在岸流動性的持續性。 美匯指數本週窄幅震盪,美元對港幣受套息盤退出繼續下滑;美元兌人民幣則在在岸流動性充裕下跌破7月低點,特別是中間價大幅下調至7.10,顯示央行正主動引導匯率升值。而AH股溢價本週小幅反彈至127.5,仍處於低位,A股相對H股表現更強勢。 南向資金上週淨流入小幅回升至222億元,但上週四(8月28日)出現單日流出200億元,周均成交佔比從前一週的29%下降至26%,顯示內資近期更傾向於投資A股。個股方面,上週大型科網股繼續獲得南向資金青睞,阿里(09988.HK)淨流入大幅增至56億元,騰訊(00700.HK)與美團(03690.HK)分別獲淨買入19億與26億元,而中芯國際(00981.HK)則被賣出16億元。
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