《大行》摩通:新世界發展(00017.HK)評級「減持」 目標價3.7元 鄭氏家族注資可能性低
《彭博》引述消息人士報道,控股股東鄭氏家族最快在今年底前向新世界(00017.HK)注資100億港元,並正在尋找能夠提供大致相同金額的股權合作夥伴。摩根大通研究報告指出,雖然新世界發展已澄清公司「未有收到任何如傳聞所述的融資建議」,但若對第三方資產出售進展不順,控股家族最終可能需要提供更多流動性支持,方式可能包括購買資產、提供股東貸款,或如市場猜測的注資(可能性較低)。
對於傳聞中提及的其他第三方投資者(黑石集團(BX.US)/凱德集團),摩通傾向認為他們更感興趣的是購買資產,而非上市公司的股權,但摩通相信多方討論(關於不同解決方案/方向)確實正在進行。在有更多證據之前,摩通保持謹慎態度,予該股評級「減持」 ,目標價3.7港元。
摩通表示,若假設市場猜測的200億港元股權注資屬實,按備考基礎估計,新世界發展的槓桿率(將永續債視為債務)將從88%降至70%,但仍未達舒適水平(同行平均:10%至40%),摩通認為200億港元的注資不足以完全緩解流動性壓力。事實上,200億港元的資本甚至不足以回購所有未償還的永續債(成本較高),總額達350億港元。若要將淨槓桿率降至40%(以恆基地產(00012.HK)的淨槓桿率包括股東貸款為基準),新世界發展理論上需要約600億港元的股權注資。
摩通又認為,鑑於新世界發展超過1,800億港元的債務及自2023財年起的持續淨虧損,認為收購股權的吸引力不大,相信收購個別資產更為可行。從鄭氏家族的角度看,認為他們更有動機購買高收益投資物業或向新世界發展提供股東貸款,而非增持股權。由於家族從新世界發展無股息收入,股東貸款或投資物業至少可產生利息/租金收入。
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