標普料美團(03690.HK)全年EBITDA降50%至60% 強大市場地位能應對外賣激烈競爭
評級機構標普表示,美團-W(03690.HK)有望能夠應對食品配送業務的激烈競爭。其穩固的市場領導地位和強大的淨現金狀況,以及該行對未來12個月內市場理性化的預期,將支持這家食品配送巨頭應對挑戰。該行目前予美團「A-」信貸評級,展望「穩定」。
由於今年4月以來與京東-SW(09618.HK)和阿里-W(09988.HK)競爭引發的激勵措施高額支出,美團目前正面臨顯著利潤率壓力。美團的營運利潤在第二季度按年急降98%。該行預計2025年全年EBITDA將下降50%至60%,且公司不太可能在2027年之前恢復到2024年的EBITDA水平。
該行稱,第三季度對美團的利潤率下降可能更嚴重。該行預計其EBITDA利潤率在截至9月底第三季內將轉為負值,相較於第二季度已處於低個位數的水平。這是因為在7月和8月初競爭最激烈的時期,促銷支出可能有所增加。
該行預計美團的利潤率將從第四季度開始恢復。政府近幾週關於減少價格驅動競爭的指導意見可能有助於在一定程度上降低競爭強度。京東計劃針對不同地區和用戶群體優化補貼策略也將有所幫助。
儘管如此,即便激勵支出逐漸減少,食品配送業務的利潤率在未來三年內可能無法恢復到其高峰水平。這是因為成本結構正在改變,以納入為配送員提供更好的福利和激勵措施,以及更可能偶爾使用補貼來吸引用戶。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.