仲量聯行:減息難救港商廈 資產價值下跌屬結構性問題
仲量聯行香港主席曾煥平表示,雖然市場憧憬美國聯儲局即將減息,惟息口下降只是緩和情況;現時資產價值下跌屬結構性問題,短時間內無法解決,暫時不會因為減息而回升。德勤亞太應急計劃和破產業務主管合夥人何國樑預計,陸續會有更多中小型發展商無法還息及違約的情況出現。
曾煥平指,目前本港甲級寫字樓租金和價格已回到2010年水平,租值比起高峰期2019年已跌41%,預計今年再跌5%;買賣價比2018年第四季高峰更減54%,估計今年再挫5%至10%,現仍未見轉折點。
他指本港整體寫字樓空置率達15%,九龍灣等地區甚至升至逾20%,當租金未能回升,物業價值亦難以向上。雖然近期寫字樓成交上升,惟曾煥平解釋,部分原因是基數低,而且業主受到來自銀行等各方面壓力,成交全部都是創歷史新低。
銀行與發展商同樣面對難題,何國樑坦言,如果銀行收樓亦要計算成本,未必賣得出,而全部在市場放售,又恐令價格下跌,故現在銀行都盡量叫客戶自己賣。按過去經驗,香港房地產通常兩三年可恢復,相信很多人都覺得今次未必兩三年便可反彈。
曾煥平補充,現時香港商業房地產市場存在「內捲」情況。當利息高企,寫字樓供應過剩,令租金收入及估值不斷向下調;銀行或要求補平均貸款價值比率(LTV)差價及還息,同時看到問題開始擴展以及變壞速度快,放貸取態便更謹慎。
曾煥平又提到,一些二、三、四線發展商,唯有以較便宜的價格賣住宅來還款,也有部分私人投資者需要把豪宅沽出才可還息,輾轉影響住宅市場。不只是發展商,香港任何一個寫字樓的業主都同樣受困擾,為相當深遠和長遠的問題,希望政府能研究如何幫助這些業主,例如與銀行商討降低存貸比率,考慮由政府承擔風險,擔保銀行向此領域借貸,為市場帶來新資金,才望有轉機以打破困局。
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