《大行》華泰證券升蒙牛(02319.HK)目標價至23.74元 後續液態奶需求有望復甦
華泰證券研究報告表示,蒙牛乳業(02319.HK)今年上半年分別實現收入、歸母淨利415.7億、20.5億元人民幣,分別按年跌6.9%、跌16.4%。展望來看,該行認為後續液態奶需求有望復甦,中秋及國慶雙節時點或為重要的觀察窗口期,冰品業務已恢復正增,後續奶粉及奶酪業務盈利能力有望向上,蓄力長期利潤彈性釋放,評級「買入」。
考慮到乳製品行業需求復甦仍然需要一段時間,華泰證券下調蒙牛收入預測,預計2025至2027年公司收入分別為842.7億、864.3億、883.3億元人民幣(較前次跌5%、跌4%、跌4%),考慮現代牧業2025年表觀預計虧損,對於公司應佔聯營公司收益造成短期不利影響,預計2025至2027年每股盈利分別為1.08元、1.45元、1.58元人民幣(較前次跌19%、跌2%、跌2%),參考可比公司25年平均20倍市盈率,給予其2025年20倍市盈率,目標價從22.77港元升至23.74港元(給予2025年16倍市盈率)。
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