《大行》摩通:中國海外(00688.HK)上半年核心淨利潤降17% 略好於預期
摩根大通表示,中國海外(00688.HK)上半年核心淨利潤按年降17%至88億元人民幣,較該行預估高4%,主要受收入按年下降4%及EBIT按年下降25%的影響。每股股息按年下降17%至25港仙,派息比率保持不變。毛利率爲17.4%,按年降4.7個百分點。評級「增持」,目標價16.5元。
該行指中海外資產負債表保持健康,淨負債比率從29%小幅下降至28%。短期債務的現金覆蓋率爲4.9倍(2024年底爲4.3倍),表現穩健,屬行業內最強水平之一。然而,毛利率爲17.4%,按年下降4.7個百分點,但按半年改善3.6個百分點。按年毛利率收縮符合預期,因去年同期基數較高(2024年上半年爲22.1%)。然而,摩通預計2025年下半年毛利率仍將面臨溫和壓力(預測爲中十位數百分比)。同時,核心淨利潤率按年下降2.8個百分點至10.2%,但按半年改善4.1個百分點。
此外,摩通指中國海外投資物業估值偏高,最新投資物業賬面價值爲2,100億人民幣,相較年化投資物業收入70億人民幣,隱含資本化率爲3.3%,仍偏低。目前,市場共識預測2025財年淨利潤僅顯示低個位數百分比的按年跌幅。市場對其盈利預測或進一步下調。
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