《大行》匯豐研究降海底撈(06862.HK) 目標價至13.8元 盈利增長可能持續疲弱 評級「持有」
阿思達克 08-27 11:07
匯豐環球研究發表研報指出，海底撈(06862.HK)今年上半年業績大致符合該行預測，但稅率高於預期。海底撈管理層在業績後電話會議中表示，2025年上半年業績疲弱是由於火鍋行業的競爭加劇及產品趨勢快速變化，並計劃通過「紅石榴計劃」(多品牌策略)及外賣業務增長來重振增長。
然而，匯豐認為上述舉措尚未對其盈利作出貢獻，且由於核心海底撈業務增長持平，其整體盈利增長可能持續疲弱，故將2025年淨利潤下調3%至39.95億元人民幣，2025年下半年淨利潤基本不變。
匯豐又將2025至2027年海底撈餐廳系統銷售額年均複合增長率(CAGR)，從5%下調至3%，同期淨利潤CAGR從6%下調至3%。該行目前的2026至2027年淨利潤預測分別比之前低7%、9%，收入預測分別下調1%、4%；預期2025至2026年淨利潤預測比市場共識低26%、30%，收入預測低7%、12%。
在調整2025年下半年盈利預測後，匯豐將公司2025年淨利潤下調3.2%，收入預測上調1.1%。雖然該行將2025年海底撈餐廳收入下調1.2%，但由於其他餐廳及外賣業務的預估提高，總體收入上調1.1%。
2025年，匯豐將海底撈餐廳系統銷售增長率從跌0.9%調整至跌1%，並預計2025至2027年集團營運利潤(OP)年均複合增長率為1.3%(之前為5.3%)，因匯豐預計其他餐廳及外賣等新業務的利潤貢獻為零。
匯豐又將海底撈目標價下調4.8%，從14.5港元降至13.8港元，意味著較當前股價有7.3%的下行空間，維持「持有」評級，認為海底撈餐廳的翻桌率可能因其積極改進餐廳營運的措施而超出該行的預期。
Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
More Content
CS Hotline: +852 3018 4526
Trading days: 24 hours | Non-trading days: 9:00-18:00
