《大行》花旗降小米(01810.HK)目標價至66元 下調今明兩年盈測
花旗表示,小米集團(01810.HK)2025年第二季度營業利潤符合該行預期,經調整淨利潤因非營業收入而略超預期。值得注意的是,受產品組合優化及規模經濟推動,第二季度電動車及AI+業務毛利率提升3.2個百分點至26.4%(該行原預期24%)。管理層指出:1)2025年智能手機出貨量預計達1.75億部,第四季度新機發布有望推動毛利率回升;2)第二季中國區AIoT銷售增長受惠於新零售及大家電業務,仍具擴張潛力;3)維持電動車業務於2025年下半年某季度實現盈虧平衡的預期。
花旗預測小米2025年智能手機出貨量為1.75億部,毛利率11.7%,物聯網及互聯網業務毛利率分別為23.2%及76.1%,2025至2027年電動車出貨量維持40萬輛、70萬輛及100萬輛預期,毛利率分別為25.1%、24.3%及25.6%。近期催化劑包括電動車訂單及交付量提升、米16系列發布及新款電動車上市。
花旗重申小米「買入」評級,將2025、2026及2027年經調整每股盈利預測分別下調1%、4%及0%,以反映產品組合調整及智能手機業務毛利率下行因素。調整後預測仍分別較市場共識高出6%、2%及14%。基於總和估值法,核心業務採用25.4倍2026年市盈率(與三年平均市盈率中上週期水平一致),並考慮國內市場份額提升、海外市場擴張及產品結構優化推動毛利率改善,預計2025至2027年經調整每股盈利複合增長率超過40%。同時,電動車業務採用1.5倍2026年市銷率估值。該行將目標價從69港元下調至66港元。
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