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《大行》里昂:升泡泡瑪特(09992.HK)目標價至318元 維持「跑贏大市」評級
阿思達克 08-19 14:24
里昂研究報告指出,泡泡瑪特(09992.HK)8月舉辦的北京Pop Toy Show(PTS),展示了其致力打造的兼容IP平台;該行又觀察到Twinkle Twinkle、Crybaby、新興IP如KeyA,以及其標誌性IP的強烈需求,還看到生活方式品類擴展至甜品、家居系列等。里昂在2025年上半年業績前更新模型,預計2025年上半年銷售額按年增長202%,受中國內地、海外按年增長113%、412%推動。里昂又將該股目標價從300元上調至318元,並維持「跑贏大市」評級。 里昂表示,隨著海外銷售佔比提升及槓桿效應,估計毛利率將擴大7.1個百分點至71.1%。憑藉成本控制及營運槓桿,核心營運利潤率應按年上升16.7個百分點至41.6%。因此,該行預計淨利潤、調整後淨利潤分別按年增長360%、351%,淨利潤率、調整後淨利潤率為30.8%、31.3%(按年提升10.6、10.4個百分點)。 里昂認為,泡泡瑪特銷售驅動因素包括:除了IP產品The Monsters、Skullpanda、Molly外,該公司新興IP變現,包括Twinkle Twinkle、Crybaby等;持續海外擴張;品類擴展將進一步滲透客戶生活周期。里昂估計,受海外銷售佔比提升、關稅相關價格上調及槓桿效應支持,泡泡瑪特2025年毛利率將按年改善4.4個百分點至71.2%。 里昂又將泡泡瑪特2025至2027年銷售、調整後淨利潤預測分別上調17%至22%、31%至36%,2025年調整後淨利潤達101億人民幣,並將目標價從300港元上調至318港元,基於較低的28倍12個月前瞻市盈率(此前為35倍),受2025至2027年調整後淨利潤年均複合增長率28%支持;基於其在構建具有可持續IP孵化及變現能力的IP平台的中期潛力,維持「跑贏大市」評級。
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