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《大行》海通國際:關注吉利(00175.HK)下半年重磅新車發佈 維持「優於大市」評級 目標價27.45元
海通國際研究報告指出,預計吉利汽車(00175.HK)2025年至2027年公司汽車交付量,分別爲309萬、353萬、393萬輛,新能源滲透率分別爲54%、55%、63%。預計2025至2027年公司每股盈利分別爲1.68元人民幣(下同)、1.92元、2.22元每股(上調2%、0%、7%)。對比同行業可比公司估值,該行給予公司2025年15倍市盈率,處於公司歷史平均估值水平,對應合理目標價27.45港元,前次目標價28.85港元,維持「優於大市」評級。 海通國際表示,吉利汽車上半年營收持續高增,市佔率穩步提升。公司今年上半年實現營業收入1,502.8億元,按年增長27%,略高於市場預期;同期汽車銷量達140.9萬輛,按年增長47%,推動市佔率首次突破10%,達到10.4%,按年提升2.4個百分點。公司表示,目前市佔率與行業龍頭的差距已收窄至4%以內,預計有望進一步縮小,並以實現反超爲目標。 該行續指出,吉利與極氪(ZK.US)合併持續推進,經雙方股東大會表決通過後方具法律效力。本次合併由吉利控股主導,極氪赴美上市一年後退市,旨在整合資源、提升效率、減少內耗。吉利汽車股東大會定於9月5日,極氪爲9月15日,若均通過,預計年底前完成交割。公司表示,合併後將設立吉利銀河與極氪科技兩大事業羣,並保留中國星燃油車系列,形成吉利汽車、吉利銀河、極氪、領克四大品牌,定位明確,覆蓋多元市場。公司認爲,下半年將在上調全年銷量目標的基礎上,加快新品投放節奏。上半年車市經歷價格戰與智能化加速,下半年將在政策及行業協會引導下,聚焦公平、健康、高質量發展。公司同時表示,「反內卷」並非單純反價格戰,而是取長補短、不詆譭競爭對手、專注自身發展。 該行又表示,吉利汽車2025年下半年多款新車值得關注:包括銀河A7已於8月上市,有望成爲10萬元級插混私家車爆款;銀河M9旗艦級插混SUV,預計第三季推出,有望在20萬元以上中大型SUV市場樹立高性價比標杆,穩態月銷表現值得期待;銀河星耀6預計第四季上市,或將重新定義緊湊型插混私家車細分市場;極氪9X基於浩瀚-S架構打造,首搭千里浩瀚H9智駕系統,預計第三季上市,有望成爲吉利科技的新一代旗艦代表。
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