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景順趙耀庭:恆指今年表現突出 仍有多個因素推動港股升勢
景順亞太區環球市場策略師趙耀庭表示,恆生指數今年表現突出,成爲全球表現最好的主要指數之一,以美元計算上升近30%。他認爲,恆指近期反彈是受益於行業特定和宏觀經濟的利好因素,以及中國寬鬆政策立場和香港市場的開放框架所帶來的資金流入,接下來仍有多個因素推動港股進一步上升。 首先是聯儲局可能即將開始降息週期。趙耀庭預計聯儲局最快或於下個月啓動降息週期,監於香港的貨幣政策框架將港元與美元掛鉤,預計香港亦將同步下調基本利率。如果與HIBOR密切相關的按揭利率持續下降,香港住宅物業市場或將迎來更強勁的復甦。 第二是強勁的南向資金流入香港市場。DeepSeek高效能人工智能模型的發佈,帶動了中國科技股的重新估值,而這些股票大多在港股市場上市。人工智能概念不僅提升了相關板塊的估值,也重新確立了香港市場作爲投資中國創新經濟的首選市場地位。本年至今,南向資金累計淨流入已達9,680億元,接近去年全年水平,遠高於往年。 第三是引領全球IPO市場。資金流入增強帶來了更活躍的交易量,提升了香港IPO市場的吸引力,並展現出強勁復甦跡象。隨着地緣政治格局的變化,越來越多的中國企業將IPO活動正從美國交易所轉向香港市場,選擇赴港上市,預計香港資本市場將從中受惠。 最後是估值相對具有吸引力。與亞洲和全球其他市場相比,恆生指數估值仍然偏低,其過去一年的市盈率爲12倍,股息收益率超過3%。隨着降息週期即將開始,週期性行業有望受益,市場反彈可能從科技和金融板塊擴展至更廣泛的領域。
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