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《大行》大摩:港銀中偏好估值合理的國際性銀行 予匯控(00005.HK)渣打(02888.HK)「增持」評級
摩根士丹利發表研究報告指,上半年本地利率因素及信貸質素風險持續,一眾銀行股中較偏好國際銀行多於本地銀行,因本地銀行估值偏高,而國際性銀行估值相對合理、資本回報具支持及前景正面,維持對匯控(00005.HK)及渣打(02888.HK)的「增持」評級。 大摩認為,中銀香港(02388.HK)股息回報將獲支持,相信即將公布的中期業績當中淨息差將受壓,但非利息收入預料表現強勁,將關注管理層對信貸質素及資本管理的看法,予「減持」評級,目標價從24.7上調至31.4元。該行又指,恆生銀行(00011.HK)估值偏高,維持「減持」評級,目標價由93元升至94.5元。 該行認為,銀行股第二季業績將主要受HIBOR下跌及香港商業地產信貸質素惡化的影響,預料財富管理業務及市場收入可抵銷部分壓力,但相信下半年挑戰仍存在,預計銀行淨利息收入及淨息差將於第三季錄得按季下跌,至第四季有望輕微復甦。隨著美國利率預期下降,大摩預期2026年淨息差可進一步收窄。
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