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大和降小米(01810.HK)目標價至72元 次季智能手機出貨量及毛利率或低於預期
阿思達克 08-07 10:24
大和發表報告,預計小米-W(01810.HK)2025年第二季度智能手機出貨量略低於先前預測,主要受印度市場按年下降25%的拖累。儘管小米全球市場份額在2025年第二季度達到15%的歷史新高,但這以毛利率下降為代價。該行預測小米2025年第二季度總收入為1,126億元人民幣,略低於市場預期;調整後淨利潤為102億元人民幣,符合市場預期。同時,該行下調2025年下半年IoT收入預測,以反映國家補貼政策的調整。 大和表示,儘管Canalys估計小米全球出貨量達4,280萬台,按年大致持平,該行微調預測至4,270萬台,平均售價按年下降2%至1,075元人民幣。出貨量差異主要反映印度市場疲弱,中國市場出貨量則符合預期,2025年第二季度為1,040萬台,較2024年第四季度至2025年第一季度的1,230萬至1,330萬台回落。值得注意的是,中印以外市場出貨量創2,740萬台新高,推動全球市場份額首次達到15%,但因競爭加劇導致折扣力度加大,毛利率承壓,該行預計智能手機毛利率降至11.3%。同時下調2025年下半年毛利率預期,反映零部件成本上漲及海外手機銷售佔比提升的影響。 受618購物節強勁表現推動(總商品交易額達355億元人民幣,按年增長35%),大和維持小米2025年第二季度IoT收入預測為361億元人民幣,相當於按年增長35%,毛利率為22.5%。然而,受國家補貼政策調整導致去年高基數影響,該行下調2025年第三季度及第四季度收入增速預測5個百分點至25%及20%。智能家電出貨量增加亦推高物流成本。互聯網服務收入預計維持93億元人民幣,毛利率77%。 受益於SU7 Ultra交付,大和預計小米2025年第二季度電動車交付量達8.2萬台,平均售價升至24.2萬元人民幣,毛利率改善至25%,電動車業務虧損進一步收窄。YU7已於7月啟動交付,二期工廠預計於9月底投產。 因智能手機毛利率預測向下修訂,大和下調小米2025至2027年每股盈測2%至7%,目標價從78港元下調至72港元(基於2025至2026年平均36倍市盈率,原為38倍),維持「買入」評級。主要風險包括宏觀經濟逆風及電動車產能爬坡進度慢於預期。 小米今日(7日)低開3.4%,最低見51.2元。現報51.55元,跌4.54%,成交1.43億股,涉資74.58億元。
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