《大行》花旗升理文造紙(02314.HK)目標價至2.4元 重申「沽售」評級
花旗研究報告指出,理文造紙(02314.HK)上半年業績略好於預期,但收入略低於預期。花旗將該公司2025至2027年的盈餘預測上調14%至15%,並基於2025年預期6倍市盈率,將目標價從2元上調至2.4元。
花旗表示,該股自7月初以來已上漲約30%,反映了上半年穩健的業績及近期針對紙業的反內捲措施。但花旗認為,消費疲弱仍是限制利潤率復甦的關鍵因素。鑑於近期技術性反彈,花旗重申對該股「沽售」評級,花旗僅看好玖龍紙業(02689.HK)(買入)因垂直整合而帶來的顯著成本節約。
在盈利上調後,花旗預測公司下半年收入增長約5.9%,相較上半年下降2.2%,這得益於當前反內捲情緒下,對平均售價(ASP)溫和上漲的預期。因此,花旗預計理文造紙毛利率將在下半年略改善至14.6%,相較上半年的14.2%,並較去年同期的11%顯著提高。
花旗認為,毛利率恢復的關鍵在於產品組合轉向衛生紙及包裝紙營運利潤率的溫和改善。花旗表示,公司正積極探索在中國以外地區擴建產能,但目前尚未見具體計劃。因此,花旗預測其到2027年兩年的每股盈利年均複合增長率僅為5%。
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