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《大行》中金料內銀股次季淨利潤升1% 部分H股股息率回升至4.5%至5.5%具投資性價比
中金發表報告,預計內銀股今年第二季收入及淨利潤各按年持平及增長1%,較今年首季跌2%及跌1%略有改善,與去年節奏類似,符合市場預期。業績改善主要來自息差降幅收窄、其他非息收入壓力緩解,人行及利率自律機制對銀行存貸款報價的引導可視為銀行業的「反內捲」,穩定銀行盈利 、防範金融系統風險。 該行料內銀今年第二季淨利息收入按年跌1%,降幅較今年首季跌2%略有收窄,主要由於息差降幅收窄。該行預計第二季內銀淨息差季度按季下降3個基點,對應按年下降11個基點,較今年首季的按季跌4個基點和跌12個基點略有改善,主要由於人行和利率自律機制對銀行的存貸款報價有所引導和約束,防止銀行業內出現不合理的報價競爭,如低於同期限國債利率的貸款報價、一味追求資產規模而犧牲經營可持續性的存款高息報價等。 展望未來,中金預計即使內地利率進一步下行以支持實體經濟,上市內銀淨息差仍會呈現資產負債利率雙邊下降的趨勢,該行維持上市內銀淨息差降幅收窄這一判斷,對銀行的淨利息收入和營收按年增速形成正向支撐。 就國家財政部、稅務總局8月1日發佈公告稱自8月8日起恢復新發行的國債、地方政府債券、金融債券的利息收入增值稅,該行假設上市銀行金融投資距離到期日平均約5年,新發金融債利率有所上行,則對上市銀行淨利潤影響約0.8%,幅度有限。且實際影響可能小於測算值,主要由於銀行 金融投資收益率可能上行,內銀也會通過調整資產配置以穩定綜合收益率。 中金稱維持內銀全年盈利及股息穩健的判斷,目前部分A股和H股中資銀行股息率回升至4.5%至5.5%,該行認為仍有投資性價比,包括國有大行、成都銀行(601838.SH)、江蘇銀行(600919.SH)等。 該行對工行(01398.HK)、農行(01288.HK)及招行(03968.HK)均予「跑贏行業」評級,各予目標價7.11元、5.09元及58.98元。
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