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《大行》富瑞降蒙牛乳業(02319.HK)目標價至26元 維持「買入」評級
阿思達克 08-06 14:55
富瑞研究報告指出,通過其渠道檢查顯示,中國液態奶(liquid milk)的疲軟趨勢持續至第二季,而其他品類則轉為正向增長。得益於有利的原材料價格和成本節省措施,預計第二季及2025年上半年毛利率和核心營運利潤率均將擴張。 對於蒙牛乳業(02319.HK),富瑞預計其2025年上半年收入、淨利潤將下降3%、3.5%,分別達到433億元、24億元人民幣。富瑞的渠道了解顯示,總體消費需求復甦持續承壓。UHT液態奶尚未實現增長,而其他品類正轉為正向增長。 得益於有利的原奶價格趨勢和有效的成本控制措施,富瑞預計蒙牛的毛利率和核心營運利潤率均將擴張,但下調收入預測1%至3%以反映消費需求低於預期,並下調淨利潤預測6%至16%以反映中國現代牧業在2025年上半年淨虧損的影響。富瑞對該股維持蒙牛「買入」評級,目標價從28.6港元降至26港元,分別隱含2025、2026財年市盈率22倍、17倍。 富瑞續指出,蒙牛預計於8月底發布2025年上半年完整財報,預期投資者將聚焦於管理層對2025年下半年、2025年展望、消費者需求復甦、原奶價格趨勢、股份回購計劃及股息政策的評論。 對於伊利股份(600887.SH),富瑞預測其2025年第二季銷售、淨利潤分別增長2.4%、7.5%,至280億元、17億元人民幣。根據富瑞的渠道檢查,UHT液態奶在第二季持續承壓(與蒙牛類似),主要因消費需求疲軟。分銷商庫存相對健康,因其保持保守態度。冷藏奶品類預計在上半年實現正增長,受鮮奶推動。奶粉業務持續表現穩健,符合管理層預期。富瑞認為,儘管第二季基數較低,雪糕品類仍面臨壓力。得益於有利的原奶價格趨勢和有效的成本控制措施,富瑞預計伊利毛利率和核心營運利潤率均將擴張。 富瑞對伊利股份維持「買入」評級,維持目標價35元人民幣,隱含2025、2026財年市盈率20倍、18倍;對其2025至2027財年的預測保持不變。 富瑞表示,中國政府在7月底宣布將推出全國性計劃,通過為每位0至3歲兒童每年提供3,600元人民幣(約502美元)的現金激勵,鼓勵夫婦生育,該計劃自2025年1月1日起實施。富瑞認為此舉旨在提升中國低迷的出生率,進而長期增加人口和勞動人口,預期該政策將長期利好乳製品行業。 以下是富瑞對上述兩間公司的評級及目標價: 股份|評級|目標價 蒙牛乳業(02319.HK)|買入|28.6元—>26元 伊利股份(600887.SH)|買入|35元人民幣
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