《大行》瑞銀:內地「反內卷」 首選板塊包括太陽能、化工和鋰行業
瑞銀髮表中國市場策略報告表示,隨着內地「反內卷」運動擴展到醫療和金融服務等領域,該行調查其分析師對近期「反內卷」行動在各行業的程度及潛在影響的看法。雖然分析師的反饋意見不一,但從股價表現和該行與投資者的交流來看,市場對這些措施的潛在影響仍持懷疑態度。儘管目前「反內卷」舉措能否達到預期效果存在不確定性,該行認爲這些舉措背後的動機仍然合理,且股價風險偏向上行。因此,投資者可能會選擇性地參與這一主題,通過風險回報最具吸引力的板塊進行投資。根據動機、潛在盈利能力和估值風險/回報等綜合標準,該行首選板塊包括太陽能、化工和鋰行業。
該行指,內地「反內卷」運動似乎已擴展到多個領域,但各行業的強度差異顯着:在外賣和汽車行業,監管機構召集相關企業,敦促其整改某些促銷行爲並進行理性競爭;在太陽能行業,根據《價格法》,禁止製造商以低於成本的價格銷售;在煤炭行業,監管機構將8個省份的產量限制在總產能的110%以內;在鋰行業,監管機構加強對非法採礦活動的審查;在生豬養殖行業,監管機構與生產商召開會議,強調對產能的更嚴格控制;在化工行業,監管機構要求提供有關落後產能的信息;在醫療行業,監管機構表示在藥品和醫療器械的集採中需考慮其他非價格因素。總體而言,該行認爲內地當前措施相較2014至2015年階段的幹預程度較低、強度較弱,但涉及範圍更廣。股價風險偏向上行。
瑞銀認爲,上述舉措有重要的推動動機:對內可提升企業盈利能力和政府稅收,對外則因其他國家對中國工業過剩供應的抵制。然而,這可能是一個長期的過程,料強度會有起伏,投資者可能需要圍繞這一主題進行交易。現階段,該行認爲風險偏向上行,原因如下:相關板塊平均表現未顯着優於大市;投資者預期普遍較低,許多情況下所持倉位較輕;監於生產者價格指數(PPI)持續惡化,未來政策更可能帶來上行(促增長和促通脹)而非下行驚喜。
瑞銀根據以下標準對板塊進行排名:1)動機,即價格無序競爭的程度(利潤率愈低的板塊,動機愈強);2)需求反應及對價格和利潤率的潛在影響;3)市場已定價的程度。基於上述標準,該行偏好太陽能、化工和鋰行業,太陽能供應鏈板塊首選股包括協鑫(03800.HK)、通威(600438.SS)及隆基綠能(601012.SH);化工板塊首選華魯恆升(600426.SH)及恆力石化(600346.SH);鋰行業首選鹽湖股份(000792.SZ)。
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