《大行》招商證券升亞馬遜(AMZN.US)目標價至271美元 次季業績強緩解關稅擔憂
招商證券國際研究報告指出,亞馬遜(AMZN.US)第二季業績強勁,淨銷售額按年增長13%,營業利潤按年增長31%,淨利潤按年增長35%,收入和盈利均超出市場預期。第三季指引中收入超預期,營業利潤略低於預期,可能受宏觀環境和關稅影響。該行認爲,亞馬遜仍有望受益於AI發展,關稅能見度提升和AWS增長改善(因產能限制緩解)可能成爲未來催化因素,維持該股「買入」評級,目標價上調至271美元。
招商國際證券預計,亞馬遜第三季收入爲1,740至1,795億美元,按年增長10%至13%,高於市場預期;營業利潤預計爲155至205億美元,區間較寬,中位數爲180億美元,按年增長3%,略低於預期,可能受宏觀不確定性和折舊增加影響。管理層表示消費者需求仍具韌性,但也在關注潛在逆風因素,如匯率波動、關稅和通脹。此外,亞馬遜持續在物流、雲計算和AI領域大舉投資,擴大北美雲基礎設施,第二季資本支出達314億美元,預計未來幾季維持類似水平,全年年化支出達1,180億美元。
招商證券國際對亞馬遜的增長前景,以及其在電商與雲計算領域的領導地位保持積極看法,將現金流量折現法(DCF)目標價上調至271美元,對應2025、2026年預測市盈率分別爲40倍和35倍,EV/EBITDA分別爲17倍和15倍,其市盈增長率(2024至2026年盈利年複合增長率)爲1.2倍,相較於主要平臺的中位數1.8倍和軟體即服務(SaaS)同行的2.3倍,估值合理。
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