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惠譽:港銀因本地商業地產敞口導致資產質量壓力或持續至明年
評級機構惠譽表示,香港銀行業因本地商業地產敞口導致的資產質量壓力可能持續至2026年,因寫字樓和零售物業需求疲軟,以及空置率攀升持續抑制估值。若市場復甦延後,資產質量惡化情況可能進一步限制銀行的「生存力評級」(VRs)。雖然近期香港利率下行,暫時緩解借款人負擔,但若本地商業情緒未顯著改善,房地產借款人困境難實質緩解。 惠譽提到,恆生銀行(00011.HK)作為香港主要銀行子公司,上半年信貸損失撥備達48億元,本地商業地產不良貸款的平均貸款價值比由60%升至71%,若商業地產估值續跌,將引發進一步撥備風險。相較之下,預期匯豐銀行(00005.HK)上半年不良貸款比率保持穩定,因其貸款組合集中於財務穩健的大型本地企業,以及地理位置多元化。 惠譽預期其他銀行資產質量差異化的情況將持續,取決於各銀行的貸款組合對本地商業地產的敞口佔比、貸款品質分類的嚴謹度,以及風險緩釋措施的有效性。 對於貸款組合側重本地小型房地產公司的銀行,惠譽認為短期會面臨更大資產質量壓力。但本港銀行穩健盈利能力和資本實力,有助為內在信用狀況提供緩衝。2025年第一季,多數惠譽覆蓋的銀行的監管資本緩衝提升1至4個百分點。例如恆生銀行資本緩衝增強,以及上半年盈利穩健,令該行在信貸成本上升下,仍提高中期股息。
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