《市評》恆指期結日向下 匯控及恆生銀行績後受壓
匯控(00005.HK)中午公布中期業績後股價受壓,港股今日期指結算日向下。中美雙方經貿團隊昨晚(29日)舉行新一輪經貿會談,國家商務部國際貿易談判代表兼副部長李成鋼稱,中美雙方將繼續推動已暫停的美方對等關稅24%部分以及中方反制措施如期展期,美股道指及納指隔晚各跌0.5%及0.4%,撰文之時,美國2年期債券孳息跌至3.975%,美國10年期債券孳息升至4.336%,美匯指數跌至98.8,道指期貨最新跌9點或0.02%,納指期貨最新升31點或0.13%。上證綜指全日反覆升6點或0.17%收3,615點,深證成指跌0.77%,滬深兩市成交額共1.84萬億元人民幣。
恆指低開189點,早市跌幅一度收窄至24點高見25,499點,匯控及恆生銀行(00011.HK)中午公布中期業績後股價受壓,恆指曾跌442點低見25,082點,全日跌347點或1.4%,收25,176點;國指跌107點或1.2%,收9,038點;恆生科技指數跌153點或2.7%,收5,490點。大市全日成交總額3,196.52億元。北水交易總成交額1,706.84億元,而南向資金今日淨流入117.14億元(上日淨流入127.2億元)。盈富基金(02800.HK)跌1.4%,成交額145.4億元,恆生中國企業(02828.HK)下滑1.3%,成交額114.6億元。
中芯(00981.HK)全日股價下挫5.9%收50.2元,石油股有支持,中石油(00857.HK)及中石化(00386.HK)股價各揚3.9%及2.8%。
【匯控績後跌 恆生撥備飆】
匯控(00005.HK)中期季績符預期,但午後股價沽壓增加,全日股價下跌3.8%報96.95元。匯控公布中期列賬基準除稅前利潤158.1億美元按年跌26.7%,符合本網綜合3間券商預測介乎154.77億至160.73億美元。列賬基準除稅後利潤錄124.41億美元,按年跌29.6%;每股基本盈利0.65美元。董事會已通過派發第二次股息每股0.1美元,按年持平。同時亦擬展開最多達30億美元的股份回購,預計將於2025年第三季業績公布前完成。此外,匯控發聲明,稱集團的瑞士私人銀行因涉嫌洗黑錢活動正受到瑞士及法國執法機構的調查,目前調查尚處於初期階段,警告事件可能對集團造成重大影響,但目前無法預測具體影響的情況。
摩根大通研究報告指,匯控次季基本稅前盈利較市場預期高10%,當中銀行淨利息收入及手續費與其他收入分別勝預期2%及11%,由財富管理業務勢頭持續所帶動。次季有形股本回報率(ROTE)達18.2%,高於市場預期的全年15.5%。普通股權一級資本比率(CET1)維持14.6%,以及30億美元股份回購計劃,均符合該行預期。
恆生銀行(00011.HK)中期稅前溢利遜預期,預期上半年信貸損失錄48.61億元,其中25.4億元來香港商業房地產,全日股價挫7.4%報113.8元。摩根士丹利發表研究報告指,恆生中期淨利潤錄68.8億元,按年下跌逾30.5%,較市場普遍預期遜色,主要受到高信貸減值撥備損失所導致。撥備前利潤較大摩預測低2.7%,但較市場預期高9%。該行指恆生銀行信貸減值撥備規模大幅超出預期,相信是由於香港商業地產敞口撥備增加。期內不良貸款率升至6.69%。該行認為,恆生整體中期表現弱於預期,考慮到香港商業地產行業陰霾未散,仍維持對其「減持」評級,目標價93元。
【跌股千二隻 理想有沽壓】
港股今日市寬轉弱,主板股票的升跌比率為18比30(上日為23比24),下跌股份1,251隻(跌幅2.5%),恆指成份股今日32隻股份上升,下跌股49隻,升跌比率為38比58(上日58比35)。大市今日錄沽空452.49億元,佔可沽空股份成交額2,923.54億元的15.478%(上日為14.715%)。
理想汽車(02015.HK)全日下挫12.8%收104.5元,為跌幅最大藍籌股,成交額72.83億元,蔚來(09866.HK)股價跌5.6%,小鵬(09868.HK)下滑5.7%,而比亞迪(01211.HK)股價下滑5.7%收120.9元。
麥格理發表報告指,理想汽車推出首架純電SUV車型i8,售價由32.18萬元人民幣起,與混能款L8的入門價格相若。該行認為,L8去年銷售額按年跌39%,公司此次定價是希望推動消費者轉投新的純電車款,反映公司的市場策略轉變。而此舉並不意外,因公司近期投資佈局於充電基建,但對於維持高利潤率將有影響,因i8電池成本較高。該行指,蔚來即將推出新純電車款樂道L90,料定價策略會與i8相近,加上其他車企如問界及特斯拉(TSLA.US)亦會推出類近定位的車型,相信6至7座純電車市場的競爭將於未來幾個月轉趨激烈。
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