《大行》摩通:匯控(00005.HK)次季基本稅前盈利勝預期
摩根大通研究報告指,匯控(00005.HK)次季基本稅前盈利較市場預期高10%,當中銀行淨利息收入及手續費與其他收入分別勝預期2%及11%,由財富管理業務勢頭持續所帶動。次季有形股本回報率(ROTE)達18.2%,高於市場預期的全年15.5%。普通股權一級資本比率(CET1)維持14.6%,以及30億美元股份回購計劃,均符合該行預期。
不過,該行指市場反應平淡,主要因淨利潤較市場預期低9%,基於減值撥備高於預期12%,以及與交通銀行相關的10億美元減值損失。該行認爲,雖然集團已事先預告交行股權稀釋將導致的11億美元損失,但10億美元減值撥備卻是意外。
該行現予目標價118元,維持「增持」評級,因認爲關稅及香港商業地產風險導致的撥備增加在預期範圍內,而且次季年化信貸成本較該行預期低7個基點。另外,交行稀釋損失與減值撥備屬一次性項目,對股息分派、CET1及股份回購前景影響有限;再者,即使HIBOR疲弱,淨利息收入表現仍然較預期具韌性,且集團逐步達成全年淨利息收入420億美元指引。
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