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《大行》匯豐:投資者認為房地產低谷期已過 看好恆地(00012.HK)及新地(00016.HK) 評級「買入」
匯豐環球研究指出,近期與投資者的對話顯示,很多人認為房地產行業的低谷期已基本結束。開發商的去庫存速度、借貸成本趨勢,以及零售租金穩定的潛力,是目前投資者最關注的議題。他們亦對香港置地及太古地產(01972.HK)的新策略發展,以及哪些企業可能具備更高的股東回報計劃感興趣。匯豐認為,市場已普遍預期2025年上半年業績疲弱,因此不太可能帶來負面驚喜。投資者現正聚焦住宅銷售趨勢,並更重視能提供未來盈利前景改善的公司,而非僅依賴高股息率的企業。 匯豐表示,香港住宅市場穩步改善,短期內正面臨現樓庫存的挑戰,預計多數開發商將更注重去庫存,這將影響其新盤定價策略。然而,匯豐看到供需動態改變的跡象。過去3至4個月,一手住宅銷售穩步回升,供應較高的地區如啟德、將軍澳及黃竹坑的銷售有所回升。庫存月數(過去12個月未售庫存/一手住宅銷售量)已從2024年第一季23個月的高點,逐步回落至最近的18至19個月。正面的資金成本及低水平的1個月HIBOR水平,提振了潛在買家及投資者重返住宅市場的意願。 在發展商中,匯豐看好恆基地產(00012.HK),因其盈利前景受借貸成本下降及物業銷售更佳而改善;新鴻基地產(00016.HK)則是少數具盈利能見度及股息確定性的開發商之一。收租股方面,九龍倉置業(01997.HK)及希慎興業(00014.HK)的商場組合,料將受惠於正面的財富效應及旅客到訪推動消費增長,支持其股息分派能力。 以下是匯豐對相關股票的評估及目標價 股份 | 評級 | 目標價 恆基地產(00012.HK) | 買入 | 34.2元 希慎興業(00014.HK) | 買入 | 18.6元 新鴻基地產(00016.HK) | 買入 | 112.9元 太古地產(01972.HK) | 買入 | 23.7元 九龍倉置業(01997.HK) | 買入 | 30元
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