《大行》匯豐研究:建材股受惠近期政策利好 水泥行業首選海螺(00914.HK)、華潤建材(01313.HK)及中國建材(03323.HK)
匯豐研究發表報告指,中國的鋼鐵和水泥股股價自7月起表現強勁,相信是受惠於「反內捲」措施和雅魯藏布江水電項目動工。當中,「反內捲」措施旨在針對不理性的競爭和過剩的產能,雖然措施依賴行業協會的自我監管和工信部的指導,但已觸發鋼鐵和水泥股的急劇重新評級,措施或帶動更健康的市場結構。
另一方面,市場的樂觀情緒亦受到全球最大的水電項目所支持。不過,該行指出,項目對建材需求的影響有限,因為時間線較長且機會具有地區特性。對水泥來說,只有在西藏或中國西南部擁有產能的生產商才能直接受惠。
該行表示,雖然目前尚未出台具體和強制性的供應控制措施,但相信政策勢頭應加快推出更具力度的措施。對於水泥行業,該行預期改革將取得實質性進展,有利於領先企業,首選海螺水泥(00914.HK)、華潤建材科技(01313.HK)及中國建材(03323.HK)。另外,該行更看好馬鋼(00323.HK)(600808.SH)而非鞍鋼(00347.HK)(000898.SZ),因為前者盈利能力更強。
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