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《大行》花旗料內地壽險公司受惠預定利率下調 估產品結構向分紅產品轉移 將提高股票投資比例
花旗發表報告表示,上週五(25日)中國保險業協會發布了普通保險產品定價利率上限的研究值,2025年第二季度爲1.99%(相較於2025年第一季度的2.13%和2024年第四季度的2.34%),這是連續第二個季度研究值比當前採用的普通產品定價利率上限2.5%,引發了兩個月內的行業範圍內的定價利率下調。中國人壽(02628.HK)、太平洋壽險和平安壽險宣佈,將於2025年8月底前分別將普通、分紅及萬能產品的定價利率上限從2.5%、2.0%及1.5%,分別下調至2.0%、1.75%及1.0%。 該行認爲內地主要壽險公司主動在監管截止日期前將普通、分紅及萬能產品的定價利率上限分別下調50個基點、25個基點及50個基點,該行認爲:1)此舉顯示了頂尖保險公司的紀律性,有助於降低新業務的保險負債成本並提高利差;2)普通產品與分紅產品定價利率上限的差距從50個基點縮窄至25個基點,將使分紅產品更具吸引力,進一步推動保險公司產品結構向分紅產品轉移。 此外,從資產端來看,隨着產品結構向分紅產品轉移,花旗預計內地保險公司將進一步提高其股票投資比例,因爲分紅產品賬戶的風險承受能力相對較高,允許更高的成長型股票投資比例。
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